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Thursday, 9 November 2006 6:00 PM Edinburgh
Current high Oil Prices: Prospects and Trends

Prof Paul Stevens, Professor, Center for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy (CEPMLP), Dundee University

Royal Scots Club 29 Abercromby Place Edinburgh EH3 6QE Map

Sponsorship is provided by Wood Mackenzie.

This event occurred on: Thursday, 09 November 2006, 6 p.m.

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The topic will look at the current state of the oil market in terms both of the physical supply and demand balances and also the behaviour of the futures markets. The presentation then considers how the current high prices might produce a market reaction to affect supply and demand in the medium term. It concludes that there will be some market responses but these will be subject to considerable time lags which implies the high prices will endure for a number of years. Finally the paper considers the longer term prospects for supply and demand with particular emphasis on the issue of peak oil and the consequent implications for longer term prices.


Educated as an economist and as a specialist on the Middle East at Cambridge and the School of Oriental and African Studies; 1973-1979 teaching at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon interspersed with two years as an oil consultant; 1979-93 at the University of Surrey. Since 1993, Professor of Petroleum Policy and Economics at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (for details see web page www.cepmlp.org) a chair created by BP. Professor Stevens has published extensively on energy economics, the international petroleum industry, economic development issues and the political economy of the Gulf. He also works as a consultant for many companies and governments.

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