The Scottish Oil Club

The Scottish Oil Club is a national forum for the presentation and discussion of views on the economic, industrial, technological and political aspects of petroleum and other energy resources.

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"Current High Oil Prices: Prospects and Trends"

Professor Paul Stevens
Professor of Petroleum Policy and Economics
Center for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy (CEPMLP), University of Dundee

Thursday 9th November 2006, 6:00 p.m.
Bookings Finalised by 4th November
The Royal Scots Club
30 Abercromby Place
Edinburgh

A programme of student dinner attendance is sponsored by Wood Mackenzie

Click on the above link to see the presentation in Adobe Acrobat format.  It is approximately 228k in size.

Synopsis

The topic will look at the current state of the oil market in terms both of the physical supply and demand balances and also the behaviour of the futures markets. The presentation then considers how the current high prices might produce a market reaction to affect supply and demand in the medium term. It concludes that there will be some market responses but these will be subject to considerable time lags which implies the high prices will endure for a number of years. Finally the paper considers the longer term prospects for supply and demand with particular emphasis on the issue of peak oil and the consequent implications for longer term prices.

Speaker

Educated as an economist and as a specialist on the Middle East at Cambridge and the School of Oriental and African Studies; 1973-1979 teaching at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon interspersed with two years as an oil consultant; 1979-93 at the University of Surrey. Since 1993, Professor of Petroleum Policy and Economics at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (for details see web page www.cepmlp.org) a chair created by BP. Professor Stevens has published extensively on energy economics, the international petroleum industry, economic development issues and the political economy of the Gulf. He also works as a consultant for many companies and governments.

Arrangements

Members and guests are invited to convene between 17:30 and 18:00 for coffee/tea and biscuits (pay-bar available). Meeting commences at 18:00.  An opportunity for informal discussion between members and guests will follow the presentation in the Cocktail Bar where a pay-bar is available until commencement of the Discussion Dinner (Chatham House Rules) at about 20:00.

Menu: Carrot and honeyed parsnip soup · Roast loin of pork with apricot stuffing, and a piquant jus  ·  Sticky toffee pudding

Wine: White: Santa Serena, Chardonnay Sauvignon Blanc, Chile 2005. Red: Santa Serena, Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon, Chile 2004

Cost:  £31 inclusive of wine and VAT. (If vegetarian meal required, please order at time of booking).

Booking

Bookings finalised on 4th November 2006.

Reply to: The Scottish Oil Club, 2 March Pines, Edinburgh EH4 3PF or by email to

All remittances by cheque or BACs transfer.  Please advise if you require an invoice.

BACS Bank of Scotland, 38 St. Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YR
Account Name: The Scottish Oil Club, Sort Code 80-41-21, Account Number: 00348827